The Increasing Impact of Bitcoin’s Ancient Supply

A quiet but potentially significant shift occurred in bitcoin’s ecosystem following the 2024 halving. For the first time in the asset’s history, the amount of bitcoin that has not moved for 10 years or more—known as “ancient supply”—is outpacing new supply. An average of 566 bitcoin per day is falling into this long-term bucket, compared to the current daily issuance rate of 450 bitcoin (per Glassnode as of June 8, 2025). 

The share of ancient supply also tends to increase each day, with daily decreases observed less than 3% of the time. In contrast, that number increases to 13% when the threshold is lowered to bitcoin holders of five years or more. 

The strong conviction of these ultra long-term holders is having an increasing influence on the wider bitcoin ecosystem. This blog explores this unique cohort’s impact, including their growing wealth and how their behavior brings bitcoin’s scarcity into sharp focus.

The Growing Wealth of Ancient Supply

January 1, 2019, marked the 3,650th day since the launch of bitcoin—on that day, Satoshi Nakamoto also became bitcoin’s first 10-year holder. Nearly 3.4 million bitcoin have joined the ancient supply since then, valued at over $360 billion at a price of $107,000 per coin as of June 9, 2025. Approximately one-third of this ancient supply is owned by Satoshi, whereas an unknown portion of this supply is believed to be lost or inaccessible. However, it is always possible that some of these coins could eventually re-enter circulation.  

It would seem as though the growing value of these coins would make it increasingly enticing for long-term holders to take profits. However, as of June 08, 2025, bitcoin’s ancient supply accounts for over 17% of the total issued supply. As demonstrated in the chart titled “Ancient Supply Growth (Bitcoin),” this share has continued to grow—reinforcing the long-term conviction of this cohort.

Bitcoin’s Ancient Supply vs. Supply Issuance

Another way to view this trend is by comparing the number of new bitcoin issued each day to the number entering the ancient supply threshold. This offers investors a clearer understanding of the network’s shifting dynamics following the 2024 halving.

It is important to note that scarcity alone means little without demand. However, when a growing contingent of long-term holders emerges—as seen with bitcoin—scarcity could become the focal point over time.    

The daily increase in bitcoin’s ancient supply officially began outpacing daily issuance in April 2024, and it is likely that the market could continue seeing this trend’s increasing impact on price in the years to come. However, it is important to note that certain market conditions do shake out even the highest-conviction holders.

Since the 2024 U.S. election, bitcoin’s ancient supply has declined day-to-day 10% of the time—nearly four times the historical average across the full data set dating back to 2019. Each red dot on the chart “Bitcoin Price Marked by Decreases in Ancient Supply” indicates a day in which ancient supply fell compared to the previous day. This means that more bitcoin moved on the day in question than what matured into new 10-year holders.   

If the highest-conviction group of bitcoin holders is moving coins at an elevated rate in this environment, it is reasonable to assume those with shorter holding periods are doing the same. In fact, as of June 8, 2025, the supply of five-year holders (or more) has decreased on a day-to-day basis 39% of the time following the U.S. election. This is three times more than the typical rate of 13%, similar to the increase seen in ancient supply activity.

This long-term holder movement may help explain some of the sideways and downward price action observed during the first quarter of 2025. It also shows that ancient supply outpacing incoming supply on average does not necessarily lead to higher prices and can have an inverse effect in shorter timeframes as supply movements increase.

It is important to reiterate that this metric is tracking the movement of coins from one unspent transaction output (UTXO) to another. Therefore, some of this movement can be attributed to sell pressure, while another portion may simply be moving coins for any number of reasons.

A simple method of tracking the progression of this trend is through the ancient supply HODL rate. This measure calculates the average number of bitcoin entering the 10-year threshold each day minus the average daily issuance of new bitcoin. It can offer investors a clearer view of the specific amount of bitcoin moving into ancient supply per day, adjusted for newly minted coins. As noted earlier, this figure turned positive for the first time in April 2024.  

In addition, because bitcoin’s supply schedule is fixed, it is possible to make hypothetical projections on when its ancient supply will hit certain milestones. For instance, bitcoin’s ancient supply is anticipated to accumulate 20% of issued supply by 2028 and 25% by 2034. Moreover, if public companies that have acquired 1,000 or more bitcoin (as of June 8, 2025) are included, ancient supply could potentially reach 30% by 2035.  

Using public companies in this projection is an inexact science, as some companies will inevitably move or sell bitcoin whereas others not accounted for today could eventually hold 1,000 bitcoin or more. However, the current trend suggests that this growing cohort could have an increasing impact on the asset’s supply over the long term and should be accounted for.

As of June 8, 2025, this group of 27 companies held over 800,000 bitcoin. The progression of this public company trend can be further explored on the chart titled “Public Companies (w/ 1,000+ BTC)”. Note that each row represents an individual public company.  

Conclusion

The 2024 halving marked a shift in the impact that bitcoin’s long-term holders have on supply dynamics. 

For the first time in the asset’s history, ancient supply began outpacing new issuance on a day-to-day basis. Additionally, it is possible that this long-term holding behavior may become more common in the future as new digital asset-focused investment products emerge and institutional adoption increases. 

Given bitcoin’s preprogrammed, disinflationary supply issuance schedule—and data suggesting that long-term holders are becoming increasingly resolute, alongside factors such as lost coins—the asset’s scarcity has the potential to grow over time. This is one of the most unique attributes of bitcoin that no other existing investment or commodity currently possesses—and one that could become increasingly important if demand rises as ancient supply grows. 

Interested in meeting with the author to discuss how bitcoin’s ancient supply could affect your investment strategy? Get in touch.