Educational
Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply: A New Era for Investors
Education and Insights
September 15, 2025 • 13 min read
Are investors on the brink of a new era in Bitcoin’s history? Satoshi Nakamoto—Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator—is now believed to hold more bitcoin than the amount remaining to be mined, with estimated holdings exceeding 1.1 million bitcoin.1 Their substantial holdings not only reflect the ease of acquiring large quantities of bitcoin in the network’s infancy, but also highlight the significant growth witnessed since. With 95% of total supply soon to be in circulation, the market may be shifting from an era of abundance to one defined by scarcity.
Bitcoin has always been scarce with a maximum supply of 21 million. However, the mindset of early bitcoin adopters was one of abundance. In 2010, for example, virtual bitcoin “faucets” gave site visitors five bitcoin at the click of a button—an amount valued at over half a million dollars today. This significant shift in perceived value has sharpened the focus on the asset’s scarcity.
This blog explores this potential new era of scarcity, highlighting bitcoin’s illiquid supply and the growing scarcity dynamic unfolding. When a finite supply is met with increasing demand, the only variable left to change is price. As public companies, nation-states, and long-term holders position themselves for the future of Bitcoin, scarcity has never been more top of mind.
Identifying Illiquid Supply
To determine what meets the threshold of illiquid supply, we looked at bitcoin supply with at least four years of data and a supply balance increasing quarter-over-quarter at least 90% of the time. Two distinct cohorts satisfied these parameters: bitcoin last moved seven or more years ago and public companies holding at least 1,000 bitcoin. We estimate that this combined group will hold over six million bitcoin by the end of 2025—or over 28% of the 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist.
The first cohort—bitcoin last moved seven or more years ago—has proven to be highly illiquid, as their total portion of the bitcoin supply has increased every quarter-over-quarter since tracking became possible in 2016. The chart “Bitcoin Last Moved 7+ Years Ago” demonstrates both the quarterly net change of this group and the total amount of bitcoin held within it.
The second portion of illiquid bitcoin supply consists of public companies holding 1,000 or more bitcoin. This cohort has only experienced one quarter-over-quarter decrease in total supply since 2020, and it collectively holds over 830,000 bitcoin as of June 30, 2025. Notably, this portion of supply has not yet reached the seven-year threshold, meaning they are not represented twice within our first defined cohort.
As of June 30, 2025, public companies holding 1,000 or more bitcoin represent 97% of the total bitcoin held across all public companies. The vast majority of these holdings are concentrated among 30 companies, making them a reliable proxy for the broader group of over 100 companies.
The Growing Trend of Illiquid Supply
When combining the supply of long-term holders with public company holdings, one can see an accelerating trend of holding bitcoin versus trading or transacting. Notably, the rise in bitcoin adoption among public company treasuries has driven an uptick in illiquid supply since Q3 2024. The chart “Quarterly Illiquid vs. Liquid Bitcoin Supply” demonstrates how this acceleration in adoption is unfolding.
This underscores the growing trend of buying and holding within the bitcoin ecosystem. When combining bitcoin that has not moved for at least seven years with public companies that hold 1,000 or more bitcoin, we see an illiquid supply that has only decreased quarter-over-quarter once in its history.
This trend has also translated into significant wealth accumulation for bitcoin holders within this illiquid group. As of June 30, 2025, this cohort held over $628 billion at a bitcoin price of $107,700—more than double the value held at this time last year. With such substantial unrealized gains, the question arises: Will these holders begin to take profit? Early signs of potential capitulation may already be emerging, as 80,000 ancient bitcoin—bitcoin that has not moved for 10 years or more—were sold in July 2025.
The chart “Percentage of Circulating Supply that Became Illiquid” illustrates how this trend has unfolded over time. It is important to note the difference between the decreasing percentage of bitcoin becoming illiquid quarter-over-quarter from 2009 to 2017, and the trend reversal beginning to form today. This demonstrates the impact that public companies are having on illiquid supply.
Analyzing the percentage of bitcoin’s circulating supply that became illiquid at any given period offers valuable insights into long-term holding trends. For instance, 82% of the circulating supply in Q1 2009 ultimately became illiquid, roughly 384,000 of the 469,000 bitcoin in circulation at the time. More recently, over 29% of the circulating supply in Q2 2018 was confirmed to meet our illiquid criteria today.
At the close of Q2 2025, bitcoin’s circulating supply stood at roughly 19.8 million. Of that, we estimate that nearly 42%—or over 8.3 million bitcoin—will be considered illiquid by Q2 2032, as demonstrated in the chart “Percentage of Bitcoin's Circulating Supply that Became Illiquid.” Of that, we estimate that nearly 42%—or over 8.3 million bitcoin—will be considered illiquid by Q2 2032. In short, this suggests that this illiquid supply already exists today, but it has not yet matured into the seven-year category. Therefore, it cannot be confirmed.
This is calculated by assuming the cohort of bitcoin held seven years or more continues to grow at the same average rate as the past 10 years, and then by adding the number of bitcoin held by the aforementioned public companies for the given quarter (i.e., no additional public company supply is assumed). This highlights a continuing trend of bitcoin’s finite supply becoming relatively more illiquid over time, with additional momentum provided by bitcoin treasury companies.
To visualize this shift, the chart “Bitcoin Supply Overview: Q2 2010–Q2 2025” illustrates the progression of bitcoin’s illiquid, liquid, and yet-to-be-mined supply. It highlights bitcoin’s evolving supply and demand dynamics and why we believe it is moving from an era of abundance to one of growing scarcity.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is seemingly entering a new era, led by two main cohorts: long-term holders and public companies. The addition of corporate treasuries into the illiquid supply category has accelerated the pace of accumulation. Furthermore, this new demand coupled with a fixed supply asset and decreasing issuance schedule has likely contributed to bitcoin’s rise to new all-time highs above $124,000—an upward trend that could continue in the years ahead.
Over time, the scarcity of bitcoin may become the focal point as more entities buy and hold the asset long term. If nation-state adoption increases and the regulatory environment surrounding bitcoin continues to evolve, the growth of the illiquid supply could be even more dramatic than what has been detailed above.
Conversely, there is still the possibility of large amounts of illiquid bitcoin moving suddenly. Long-term holders and public companies could choose to realize gains at any moment, particularly if price continues to climb.
Looking ahead, bitcoin’s evolving supply dynamics suggest the asset may still be in the early stages of a broader structural shift. Bitcoin remains a dynamic experiment in economics in which a finite supply meets an increase in demand—and the market is starting to see the effects of this on a global scale. For investors, understanding this real-time shift from abundance to scarcity could be critical for shaping long-term portfolio strategies.
Interested in exploring how bitcoin’s illiquid supply may impact your strategy? Get in touch.
1https://timechainindex.com/?resource=holdingsbyentity
2https://investor.galaxy.com/news/news-details/2025/Galaxy-Executes-One-of-the-Largest-Notional-Bitcoin-Transactions-Ever/default.aspx
The information herein was prepared by Fidelity Digital Asset Services, LLC (“FDAS LLC”) and Fidelity Digital Assets, Ltd (“FDA LTD”), It is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or an offer to buy or sell any asset. Perform your own research and consult a qualified advisor to see if digital assets are an appropriate investment option.
Digital assets are speculative and highly volatile, can become illiquid at any time, and are for investors with a high-risk tolerance. Investors in digital assets could lose the entire value of their investment.
Custody and trading of digital assets are provided by Fidelity Digital Asset Services, LLC, which is chartered as a limited purpose trust company by the New York State Department of Financial Services to engage in virtual currency business (NMLS ID 1773897) ("FDAS LLC"). FDA LTD relies on FDAS LLC for these services. FDA LTD is registered with the Financial Conduct Authority under the U.K.’s Money Laundering Regulations. The Financial Ombudsman Service and the Financial Services Compensation Scheme do not apply to the cryptoasset activities carried on by FDA LTD.
To the extent this communication constitutes a financial promotion in the U.K., it is issued only to, or directed only at, persons who are: (i) investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the "FPO"); (ii) high net worth companies and certain other entities falling within Article 49 of the FPO; and (iii) any other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated.
This information is not intended for distribution to, or use by, anyone in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. Persons accessing this information are required to inform themselves about and observe such restrictions.
Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may change based on market or other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the speaker or author and not necessarily those of Fidelity Digital Assets or its affiliates. Fidelity Digital Assets does not assume any duty to update any of the information.
FDAS LLC and FDA LTD do not provide tax, legal, investment, or accounting advice. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on, for tax, legal, or accounting advice. Tax laws and regulations are complex and subject to change. You should consult your own tax, legal, and accounting advisors before engaging in any transaction.
Fidelity Digital Assets and the Fidelity Digital Assets logo are registered service marks of FMR LLC.
© 2025 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.