March 19, 2025 • 6 min read
As bitcoin’s current market cycle progresses, investors are watching closely for potential signs of continued price discovery following the post-election rise.
In November 2024, bitcoin’s price made its first convincing move above the previous all-time high set in March 2024 based on closing prices via Glassnode, entering a phase of true price discovery for the first time since surpassing $20,000 in December 2020. Shifts of this kind have historically been seen during previous Acceleration Phases, a time in bitcoin’s price cycle characterized by high volatility and high profit.
The key question now is: Has bitcoin already hit this cycle’s blow-off top, or does the asset have further room to run?
Bitcoin’s Post-Election Rally vs. Historic Upswings
Bitcoin’s November 2024 rally saw the asset rise by as much as 56%, entering a period of price discovery reminiscent of rises seen during past Acceleration Phases, as shown in the chart “Bitcoin's Post-U.S. Election Rise (2024).”
For historical context, bitcoin broke out above $30 for the first time in 2013 and saw a surge in price to a new all-time high of $229 before cooling off. Bitcoin similarly broke out above $1,100 in 2017, reaching a period of price discovery that saw the asset rise to nearly $3,000 before cooling off.
Both break outs highlight a pattern of volatility and profit typically seen during the Acceleration Phase. In each instance, these rises were followed by sideways action. In both 2013 and 2017, the sideways movement eventually broke out a second time to the upside.
Although the current cycle’s trajectory has yet to fully unfold, these historical parallels suggest the potential for a similar upward shift.
Increasing Levels of Volatility
On the weekly scale, bitcoin’s realized volatility has increased rapidly and may suggest that the sideways action of the past few months could be ending. This aligns with the behavior observed during the Acceleration Phase, which has historically seen a rise in one-year realized volatility over its course. From the start of the Acceleration Phase on July 15, 2024 to March 6, 2025, one-year realized volatility has increased from 45% to 51%.
Moreover, bitcoin’s volatility has historically skewed to the upside. When looking at monthly returns and using the S&P 500 as a reference point, bitcoin has seen higher levels in both directions, but more frequently—and significantly—to the upside.
That said, drawdowns are an inherent part of the Acceleration Phase—and they can be challenging for investors. However, the most recent drawdown bitcoin experienced is relatively average compared to previous cycles. This suggests that volatility could be diminishing in both directions as bitcoin matures.
Are We Approaching the End of This Cycle?
While the future remains uncertain, historical precedence suggests that as the Acceleration Phase extends, the likelihood of a blow-off top increases. As of March 3, 2025, bitcoin reached day 232 of its latest Acceleration Phase, edging closer to when previous phases have peaked and been followed by an abrupt reversal. The Acceleration Phases of 2010–11, 2013, and 2017 reached their tops on day 244, 261, and 280, respectively suggesting a slightly more drawn-out phase each cycle.
This does not necessarily mean the current phase will end within this specific timeframe. However, history shows that bitcoin’s Acceleration Phase can conclude with a sharp, dramatic rally—akin to the grand finale in a fireworks show—before rapidly losing momentum and entering the Reversal Phase.
A key metric to watch during the Acceleration Phase is the number of days during a rolling 60-day period in which bitcoin reaches a new all-time high. Bitcoin has typically experienced two major surges within previous Acceleration Phases, with the first instance of this cycle’s following the election. If a new all-time high is on the horizon, it will have a starting base near $110,000.
It is important to note that the only time a second rally failed to materialize was in November 2021. As we continue monitoring the current cycle, it will be important to watch for whether Bitcoin follows its historic patterns or begins to show signs of divergence.
Looking for more timely insights into Bitcoin and other digital assets? Get in touch with our team.
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